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    December 3, 2008
    Indicators of a Credit Crisis

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    We’ve been hearing all about the credit crisis impacts whether we can get a mortgage loan or even that credit lines may be cut. But how do the "experts" know how severe the credit crisis is? Well, they have help from a few indicators:

    1. Lower yield on U.S. bonds. Government debt — especially U.S. government debt — is considered one of the safest investments in the world. When people get nervous and start to invest more in this safe debt, it is a sign that they are concerned about the economy. As a result, yields go down.

    2. LIBOR. The LIBOR rate is what banks charge each other for short-term loans. High rates mean that there is concern that banks may not pay each other back — the risk of default is rising.

    3. TED spread. This is the difference between U.S. bonds and the LIBOR rate. The wider the spread, the bigger the problem.

    4. Commercial paper. Sometimes, companies or banks finance each other through unsecured debt. When it get tough to get commercial paper, you know there is a problem in the credit market.

    These are just some of the indications of how deep a credit crisis might be. And, of course, if you want your own proof, just look at how hard it is to get any sort of loan right now — and the interest rates that are starting to be charged, despite a low Fed rate.

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    Comments

    It is very hard to get a loan at the moment. A friend of mine was refused line of credit from his own bank. Same happened when he applied for credit card… The banks are simply lending only to people with excellent credit and no debt.

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